Project 02 | Real-estate portfolio risk
Multifamily Portfolio Risk & Capital Allocation Engine
A portfolio risk system for analyzing multifamily property performance, CMHC-aware financing exposure, downside scenarios, refinancing risk, and capital deployment priorities across a real-estate portfolio.
- Focus
- Property risk, stress testing, capital allocation
- Dataset
- 24 properties, 48 months
- Status
- Live on Render
Business question
Which properties need attention first?
The project looks at a simulated multifamily portfolio the way an operator or analyst would: not as a static list of buildings, but as a set of changing revenue, expense, debt, occupancy, and valuation exposures.
The goal is to identify where financial risk is building, understand what happens when operating conditions worsen, and recommend where limited capital should be deployed first.
System architecture
The project uses a database-style workflow instead of one giant spreadsheet.
Data model
Properties, financials, CMHC and non-CMHC debt, valuations, and capital projects are separate tables.
SQL assembly
Joins, CTEs, aggregations, and window functions build the analysis dataset.
Risk engine
Python and pandas calculate NOI, DSCR, LTV, trends, concentration, and risk scores.
Decision report
Stress tests and capital recommendations are published in a reviewable report.
Financial model
Standardized property risk measures
- NOI = revenue minus operating expenses
- NOI margin = NOI divided by revenue
- Cap rate = annual NOI divided by property value
- DSCR = NOI divided by debt service
- LTV = debt balance divided by property value
- Revenue, OpEx, and NOI per unit
Stress engine
Scenario-driven downside analysis
The live report recalculates each property under occupancy pressure, expense pressure, refinancing shock, cap-rate expansion, and a combined downside case. Rate shocks are adjusted by loan structure, so CMHC-insured loans behave differently from conventional, bridge, and construction debt.
Capital allocation
A budget-aware recommendation layer
The project does not pretend properties can be traded like liquid securities. Instead, it asks a more realistic real-estate question: given a fixed capital budget, which renovations, building systems work, debt paydowns, or efficiency projects should be prioritized?
Validation
Built so the numbers can be checked
- Formula tests for NOI and debt service
- Scenario tests for occupancy and cap-rate shocks
- Risk score bounds and banding checks
- Capital selection must stay within budget
- Portfolio exposure must sum to 100%
Explore the output
Open the Fergo risk workspace
The app lets a viewer adjust stress scenarios, review the risk matrix, inspect highest-risk properties, and see capital allocation recommendations in the dashboard.